Do evangelical and other conservative voters have enough pull in Virginia to provide Huckabee with another upset?
I guess the answer depends on how many Republicans, acknowledging that McCain is going to be the nominee regardless of Huckabee's showing, will crossover to vote in the Democratic primary to select the candidate they feel is most likely to be defeated by McCain in a general election.
And these people are probably not evangelicals. That group angrily distrusts McCain and are likely to eagerly cast a protest vote for Huckabee in the Republican primary thus giving him a higher vote percentage and possibly a victory than if Republicans play fair and stick to their own primary.
What concerns me most are the Bubba Republicans, commonly seen in much of the south, and probably more racist than religious. In their eyes, they would like to see McCain vs. Obama. What better hope for a Republican victory than a patriotic, experienced war hero going head-to-head against (as the New York Times eloquently and unnecessarily reminded us) a young and less experienced (ex-)dope-smoking Negro. And it's the Bubba group we can thank for that highly entertaining Muslim accusation.
What better scenario for stirring the passions of the Bubbas? It sure beats McCain against an experienced white woman and former first lady.
Some of you might question whether the Bubba vote would be enough to derail Obama's popularity among Democrats and many independents.
Do not discredit the Bubbas of our nation, particularly in the Deep South. In addition, there is Bubba mentality elsewhere, even in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New England states. This is not to suggest the Republicans have much hope of winning New England (perhaps New Hampshire), I merely bring this up because it's not limited to the states of the Confederacy although it will be felt most strongly in Dixie.
And places like Utah. Read the comment in that link.
I’m a registered Republican, but I was thinking about participating in the Democratic primary next Tuesday instead, since that one will actually be competitive here, and I’d like to do what I can to help kick Hillary to the curb.
Yep, it's nice to see Democracy in action, and people who have no interest in seeing any Democrat in the White House working to hard to determine the eventual nominee of the party. Obama beat Hillary in Utah by 56% to 39%.
Keep an eye on the results of today's Virginia primary. Compare Republican turnout to 2004 totals. Compare Democratic turnout to 2004 totals. Pay particular attention to the margins of victory in each contest, and contrast them with neighboring Maryland. Virginia is an open primary state as opposed to Maryland which is not. This could be interesting.
As we march onward to November, remind yourself that roughly 30% of Americans still think George W. Bush is at least a decent, if not great, president, even as a portion of those feel our nation is on the wrong course.
Yesterday, John McCain got the endorsement of brother Jeb. Small wonder given that McCain is suddenly so Bushy himself, echoing the president both in comments and steadfast beliefs.
President Bush has said he will place great emphasis on General Petraeus’s recommendations.
[...]
Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, had little reaction to Mr. Gates’s statement while campaigning in Richmond, Va. “All I know is that I have had many conversations with Secretary Gates, and I know that we will be guided by the recommendations of General Petraeus.”
Given a choice in the general election between what many will see as a choice between the lesser of two evils regardless of which Democratic candidate is the nominee, I have no doubt in my mind which candidate will get their vote.
I detect a foul stench emanating from the American political kitchen. The resulting entree is unlikely to be palatable. This is going to be one hell of a long and ugly political year. It had better be worth the wait in the end.
Crossposted at Big Brass Blog
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